The Hiring Pulse

September Edition, 2026

Make data-driven hiring decisions with confidence.

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Last month's jobs report delivered the strongest headline number the labor market has produced in months, and revisions made the two months before it look sturdier than first reported. Texas kept adding jobs, but at a pace below its usual trend, while national consumer sentiment kept sliding toward some of its lowest readings in years. This edition looks at what the data says about where hiring actually stands heading into the fall.

U.S. Overview - Job growth rebounds as confidence falls

  • Payrolls and Unemployment: Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, more than five times the 31,000 average monthly pace of the prior year. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, with about 7.0 million people unemployed. Revisions strengthened the recent trend: June's gain was revised up to 31,000, and July's originally reported loss of 23,000 jobs was revised into a gain of 21,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% over the year. Food services led job gains with 59,000 positions, followed by local government education at 42,000. The information sector kept shedding jobs, down 23,000.

  • Job Openings and Hiring: Job openings held at 7.3 million in July, little changed from June. Hires slipped to 5.1 million and quits eased to 3.1 million, suggesting workers are staying in their current jobs rather than testing the market. Openings aren't collapsing, but employers also aren't moving quickly to fill them.
  • Layoffs and Hiring Plans: Announced job cuts jumped 58% from July to nearly 53,000 in August, led by consumer products, food, and technology companies, though the total stayed 38% below last August's level. For the first time in five months, restructuring outranked AI adoption as the leading cited reason for cuts. At the same time, announced hiring plans reached more than 12,300, a sharp jump from a year ago, with manufacturing accounting for nearly half of those planned positions.
  • Consumer Sentiment: Confidence kept softening. The Conference Board's index slipped to 89.4 in August as consumers grew more pessimistic about the next six months, even while rating current conditions somewhat better. The University of Michigan's early September reading fell further to 47.8, down from 51.7 in August and well below where it stood a year ago.

Texas Snapshot - Job growth slows across Texas

  • Employment and Unemployment: Texas added 5,600 jobs in August, bringing total nonfarm employment to about 14.47 million. Growth over the past year measured 1.1%, below the state's typical pace. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5% in July, but stayed above both the national rate of 4.1% and Texas's own rate from a year ago.

  • Sector Performance: Government led the state's gains with 5,900 new jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality and professional and business services. Private sector hiring outside those areas was essentially flat for the month. Trade, transportation and utilities, information, and education and health services all lost jobs in August.
  • Wage Pressures and Business Outlook: The Dallas Fed's latest forecast calls for 1.2% job growth in Texas for 2026, a second straight downward revision that the bank attributes largely to labor supply constraints. Separately, the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey showed hiring nearly flat in August (its employment index sat near zero), even as its wages and benefits measure climbed to 18.8, above its historical average, a sign that pay pressure is building even where headcount isn't.

Trends to Watch - Hiring signals remain mixed

  • The labor market looks steadier than first reported. July's initial payroll loss was revised away entirely and turned into a modest gain, a reminder that early readings of a soft month can flip once more data comes in.
  • Layoff announcements and hiring plans are both climbing. Job cuts rose sharply from July even as companies announced far more new hiring plans than a year ago, a sign of churn rather than a move in one clear direction.
  • Temporary staffing demand is running hot. The latest weekly staffing data show industry hours up 11% over the past year (adjusted for the Labor Day holiday shift), with industrial roles leading at 17% growth, even as office and clerical roles keep shrinking.
  • Texas growth has settled below trend. State job growth and the Dallas Fed's own forecast have both cooled, with labor supply constraints cited as the main drag.

Looking Ahead - Labor costs and confidence in focus

  • Watch consumer sentiment for spillover. Sentiment readings are near some of their lowest levels in years. If that pessimism starts showing up in spending, it could show up in hiring data within a few months.
  • Wage pressure is broadening in Texas even without much new hiring. Employers weighing headcount decisions should expect labor costs to keep climbing regardless of how fast hiring picks up.
  • The next round of national and Texas data will show whether August's rebound holds, or whether this month's stronger numbers were a one time bounce.

Data Sources

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, August 2026 data (released September 4, 2026)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), July 2026 data (released September 1, 2026)
  • Texas Workforce Commission, August 2026 data (released September 18, 2026)
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Employment Forecast (released September 21, 2026)
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey, August 2026 data (released September 1, 2026)
  • U.S. Department of Labor, weekly initial jobless claims, week ending September 12, 2026
  • SIA | Bullhorn Staffing Indicator, week ending September 12, 2026 (released September 22, 2026)
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Job Cut Announcement Report, August 2026 data
  • The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, August 2026 data
  • University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers (Consumer Sentiment Index), September 2026 preliminary data

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